The Incumbent Advantage, the Mass Defections, and the Battle of Succession
As Oyo State moves steadily toward the 2027 gubernatorial race, all eyes are naturally fixed on the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) — not only because it holds power, but because how it manages this power in transition will largely determine whether it retains or loses it.
The Governor, who reclaimed Oyo for the PDP in 2019 and consolidated his hold in 2023 with an emphatic victory, now stands as the party’s undisputed leader and the face of its current political order. For someone who always brags about not having a godfather but has evolved into a godfather himself, one wonders how the successor is going to emerge.
Strengths: The Weight of Incumbency and Organised Structure
The PDP is supposed to enter the pre-2027 season with the most formidable political machinery in Oyo State. It controls the levers of state power — ministries, agencies, local government caretaker committees, and an extensive patronage network that has deepened the party’s visibility and influence across all 33 local governments. This structure gives it financial muscle, administrative advantage, and communication reach unmatched by any other political platform in the state.
However, though the party’s candidate won the Ibadan North by-election, the 18,000-plus votes showed weakness in victory; the inputs and assumed strength were not reflected in the results.
Equally crucial is the internal organisational strength that the party has maintained since 2019. The recent ward-to-local government congresses were relatively rancour-free but led to the exit of key stakeholders from the party and many other silent but displeased leaders.
Weaknesses and Challenges: The Succession Question and Internal Friction
Beneath this confident exterior lies the PDP’s most delicate dilemma — succession. As the Governor completes his second term, questions over who carries the torch in 2027 have started stirring subtle but real tensions within the party.
Three issues define this uncertainty:
1. Zoning and Equity: There is growing agitation that the next governor should emerge from Oke-Ogun, Ogbomoso, or Ibarapa — regions that have historically felt short-changed in the state’s power rotation. If the PDP insists on retaining the governorship in Ibadan, it risks alienating significant blocs of loyal members in other zones.
2. Age and Generational Shift: Makinde has publicly hinted at his desire to see a younger successor, ideally below 50, who can carry on the “Omi Tuntun” legacy. While this resonates with the youth, it unsettles some established politicians who feel entitled to the seat by seniority or long-time loyalty.
3. Elite Rivalries and Exclusion: Within the party, whispers of marginalization persist. Some party elders, particularly from outside Ibadan, feel excluded from major decisions, while several 2019 allies believe they have been abandoned after contributing to Makinde’s rise. Left unchecked, this sense of exclusion is contributing to defections and quiet sabotage.
Beyond these internal frictions, complacency is another looming danger. Incumbent parties often overestimate their popularity, mistaking state visibility for guaranteed loyalty. The PDP must guard against the laziness that comes with power — neglecting the streets, the youths, and the narratives that can shift opinions swiftly in the age of social media.
The 2027 election for the PDP is Makinde’s “shadow third term,” and it will be difficult to differentiate his preferred candidate from this perception.
Outlook & Strategy: Managing Transition, Preserving Legacy
For the PDP, 2027 is less about winning an election and more about managing a transition without losing control. The Governor’s choice of successor, how it is communicated, and how party stakeholders are integrated into that process will determine whether the PDP enters 2027 united or fractured.
If the PDP sustains internal stability and presents a candidate who embodies Makinde’s development ethos while appealing to other zones, it remains the front-runner for Oyo 2027. But if the succession process becomes divisive or dismissive, it could open the door for an energized APC, ADC, or a coalition of aggrieved PDP elements to stage an upset.
In essence, the PDP seems to hold the ace — but also the risk. Oyo 2027 will test whether it can convert incumbency into continuity, which has never happened before, or whether its internal contradictions will turn victory into vulnerability.
As we all wait for the post-November National Convention in Ibadan, what is sacrosanct is that the convention will determine whether the PDP is out of ICU or relapsed into a coma. Also, the internally displaced and displeased members in the PDP will determine its success or otherwise, because Oyo State politics is peculiar in that internal workings against party candidates are common.
2027 DRAWS NEAR — DESTINY BECKONS AGAIN.
See you next Friday by the grace of God for APC.
Rotimi Johnson Ojasope
Public Affairs Analyst / PR Consultant
